Best Time to Visit Bali in 2027: What the Rain and Arrival Data Actually Say

The short answer

The best time to visit Bali is May, June or September. Rain is low, the sea is calm and crowds sit below the July peak. For the best shoulder-season value with mostly dry weather, pick October or late April. For the lowest prices, go in February or November and accept daily rain.

Avoid three windows if you can: July to mid-August, 20 December to mid-January, and 6 to 15 March 2027. That last one surprises most people. I explain why below.

Why I wrote this guide differently

Most Bali guides repeat the same line: dry season good, wet season cheap. That’s true, but it’s not enough to book flights on.

I spent years in investment analytics before founding BazTel. So I did what I’d do with any decision: I went to the source data. I pulled monthly arrival figures from Statistics Indonesia’s Bali office (BPS Bali). I used long-term rainfall normals for Ngurah Rai airport from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Then I cross-checked Indonesia’s official 2027 holiday calendar and Australian school terms.

The result is one table that shows rain and crowds side by side, which is exactly the table I wish I’d had before planning my own trips.

Bali weather by month: rain, crowds and my verdict

The crowd index below uses 2025 foreign arrivals, with July set at 100. Rainfall is the long-term monthly average at the airport, near Kuta and Jimbaran.

Month	Avg rain (mm)	Crowd index (July = 100)	Verdict
January	351	76	Wettest month. Busy until Aussie school holidays end in late January.
February	290	65	Quietest month of the year. Wet, green and cheap.
March	231	68	Quiet and good value. Skip 6–15 March 2027.
April	107	85	Rain fading fast. Lush scenery. Watch school holiday dates.
May	95	86	Strong pick. Drying out before the June build-up.
June	68	92	Dry and sunny. Busy from the last week.
July	28	100	Driest and busiest. Highest prices.
August	36	98	Same as July. Crowds ease in the last week.
September	59	91	Excellent. Crowds thin after mid-month.
October	64	85	Most underrated month. Nearly as dry as September.
November	131	69	Wet season starts. Quiet and cheap.
December	327	82	Heavy rain plus Christmas crowds. Priciest late in the month.

Sources: BPS Bali monthly releases for 2025; JMA climate normals for Denpasar/Ngurah Rai.

Two things jump out. First, October gets almost the same rain as September: 64 mm versus 59 mm. Yet arrivals drop about 6%, and hotels start trimming rates as the European and Australian holidays wind down. That gap is where the value sits.

Second, May is wetter than many guides admit. It averages 95 mm, more than either September or October. It’s still a great month, but expect the odd afternoon shower.

What Bali’s seasons really feel like

Bali has two seasons. The dry season runs roughly April to October. The wet season, also called the rainy season, runs roughly November to March.

Temperatures barely move. Monthly averages at the airport range from 26.3°C in August to 28.2°C in November. So November, not May, is the warmest month, and humidity makes it feel hotter.

In the wet season, rain usually arrives as heavy bursts rather than all-day drizzle. January averages about 18 wet days, according to WeatherSpark. August averages about two. Mornings in the wet season are often clear enough for a temple visit or a surf, so the trick is to plan outdoor things early and save cafés and spas for the afternoon.

The 2026/27 wet season forecast

Indonesia’s weather agency, BMKG, expects a late start to this wet season across much of the country. Its outlook puts the onset in November for parts of Bali and December for most of the island. The peak is forecast for December 2026 to February 2027.

BMKG also says the season may be shorter than usual, with onset and peak arriving close together. For travellers, that means a drier November than normal is possible. It also means heavy rain could hit fast once it starts.

The 2027 dates that change everything

Weather is only half the picture. Holidays move prices and crowds more than rain does. Here are the dates I’d plan around for 2027.

Date (2027)	Event	What it means for you
Until ~27 Jan	Australian summer school holidays	Busy, especially in family areas. Prices ease after.
13 Jan and 23 Jan	Galungan and Kuningan	Bamboo penjor poles line the roads. Beautiful, and Bali stays open.
6 Feb	Chinese New Year	Short spike in Asian arrivals.
6–15 Mar	Nyepi plus Eid al-Fitr holiday block	Airport shut on 8 March. Domestic travel surge either side.
Late Mar–Apr	Easter and Australian autumn holidays	Short busy bursts. Dates differ by state.
18–19 May	Idul Adha and Waisak bridge days	Domestic long weekend.
Late Jun–mid Jul	Australian winter holidays	Start of peak season.
11 Aug and 21 Aug	Galungan and Kuningan	Second festival of the year.
17 Aug	Indonesian Independence Day	Parades and local events.
Late Sep–early Oct	Australian spring holidays	A short busy spell inside a great month.

Why 6–15 March 2027 is a trap

Nyepi, Bali’s Day of Silence, falls on Monday 8 March 2027. The whole island stops for 24 hours. The airport closes, shops shut and guests must stay inside their hotel.

On its own, that’s manageable, and many travellers find the silence one of the most memorable nights they’ve had anywhere. The problem is what surrounds it. Indonesia’s official 2027 holiday decree puts Eid al-Fitr on 10–11 March. Add the bridge days and weekends, and Indonesians get ten days off in a row, from 6 to 15 March.

Expect busy flights, full ferries and higher domestic demand around the island. If you want Nyepi itself, it’s an unforgettable night. Just arrive by 6 March and don’t plan to leave until after 15 March.

The closure follows a fixed pattern. In 2026, the airport suspended all regular flights from 6 am on Nyepi to 6 am the next day. About 440 flights were affected. Plan for the same window in 2027.

Where the crowds come from

Australia is Bali’s biggest market by far. It sent about 1.63 million visitors in 2025, around 23% of all foreign arrivals, per BPS data reported by Antara. That’s why Australian school holidays shape Bali’s busy weeks more than any other calendar.

Bali also saw nearly 6.95 million foreign arrivals in 2025, a record. Data for January to July 2026 shows a slight dip of about 2%, according to an analysis of BPS releases. In short, Bali has plateaued at a very high level, so don’t expect July or Christmas to feel any quieter in 2027.

Ngurah Rai also handled about 24 million passengers in 2025, close to its design capacity. In July and August, that shows up as long immigration and taxi queues.

The risks no one puts in the brochure

Dry season is not a weather guarantee

In September 2025, in the middle of dry season, Bali had its worst floods in years. Denpasar’s weather station logged 188 mm of rain in one night, Tempo reported. That’s more than three times the normal total for the whole of September.

At least 14 people died, and the main road to the airport was cut for a time. Roads in Canggu and Ubud also flooded. Events like this are rare, but they happen.

My takeaway: always leave a buffer day before an international flight. Treat it as cheap insurance.

Volcanic ash can ground flights in any season

Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki sits on Flores, more than 1,000 km east of Bali. Even so, its eruptions have cancelled Bali flights several times since November 2024. In June 2025, Indonesia’s Transport Ministry said at least 26 flights were cancelled or delayed, Reuters reported, affecting more than 14,000 passengers.

You can’t time your trip around a volcano. But you can buy travel insurance when you book, not in the week before you fly when an eruption is already in the news. Most policies won’t cover events that were already known when you bought cover.

Dengue rises after the rain peak

Bali’s health office warns of rising dengue cases from late November. BMKG also flags a likely spike after the wet season peaks. Use repellent in the wet months, especially at dawn and dusk.

The best time for what you want to do

Surfing. The west coast (Uluwatu, Canggu, Padang Padang) works best from May to September. The east coast (Keramas, Sanur) gets offshore winds in the wet season.

Diving and snorkelling. Visibility is best from May to November. To see mola mola off Nusa Penida, go from July to October, according to local dive guides. The water can drop to 16–22°C at depth, so bring a thicker wetsuit.

Hiking Mount Batur. Go from May to September for the clearest sunrise views. Pack a warm layer either way, as the summit is cold before dawn.

Rice terraces and waterfalls. Visit in the wet season or in April, when the fields around Jatiluwih and Tegallalang are at their greenest and the falls run hardest.

Culture. Time your trip for Galungan, or for Nyepi if you can handle the 2027 holiday crush. The Bali Arts Festival usually runs mid-June to mid-July in Denpasar.

The best time for your type of trip

You are…	Best months	Why
First-time visitor	May, June, September	Reliable weather without peak crowds
On a tight budget	February, November	Lowest arrivals, best villa deals
Family tied to school terms	Early in the June/July holidays	Beat the peak by booking 4–6 months out
Honeymooning	September, early October	Dry, warm, calmer restaurants
Remote worker	October, April–May	Good value and steady weather for longer stays
Diver	July–October	Mola mola season and strong visibility

Before you fly: a short checklist

1. Pay the tourist levy. Every foreign visitor pays Rp 150,000, about US$10. Pay it on the official Love Bali website and save the QR voucher. Ignore anyone asking for a higher amount.
2. Check the holiday calendar. Cross-check your dates against the 2027 table above.
3. Buy travel insurance at booking. Flood and ash disruption are real risks.
4. Sort your mobile data before you land. In the wet season, you’ll rebook rides, check flight changes and read weather alerts on the go.

On that last point, I’ll be upfront: I run BazTel, so I’m biased. Our Indonesia eSIM plans install with one tap from your dashboard, with no QR code to scan. Every plan also supports hotspot, so one phone can keep a travel partner online. If you’re new to this, start with what an eSIM is. If you’re adding stops nearby, our Asia regional plans cover multiple countries.

Whichever provider you use, install the eSIM at home over Wi-Fi. Then switch it on when you land. Our guide on how to get your eSIM QR code covers other providers too.

Myth vs fact

Myth	Fact
“It rains all day in the wet season.”	Rain mostly comes in heavy bursts. Mornings are often clear.
“October is wet season.”	October averages 64 mm, almost the same as September’s 59 mm.
“May is Bali’s hottest month.”	November is the warmest month on average, at about 28°C.
“Dry season means zero weather risk.”	The September 2025 floods hit in peak dry season.
“Nyepi is just one quiet day.”	In 2027, it sits inside a ten-day national holiday.

My bottom line

If I could pick any dates, the best time to visit Bali would be the second half of September or the first half of October. The weather is close to its best, the Australian holidays are over, and prices start to slide.

If money matters more than sunshine, February is the smart play. You’ll trade some afternoon rain for empty temples, easy restaurant bookings and villa rates that peak season simply can’t touch.

Whatever you pick, plan for the dates, not just the season. A dry week in March 2027 can still be the most crowded week of your year.

Frequently asked questions

What is the best month to visit Bali?

September is the best single month for most travellers. It’s dry, averaging 59 mm of rain, and crowds thin after mid-month. May and June are close behind.

What is the worst time to visit Bali?

The busiest and most expensive windows are July to mid-August and late December to mid-January. For weather alone, January is the wettest month, with about 351 mm of rain on average.

What is the cheapest time to go to Bali?

February is usually cheapest. It’s Bali’s quietest month for foreign visitors, with arrivals about 35% below July. November is a close second.

Is October a good time to visit Bali?

Yes. October is nearly as dry as September on long-term averages, yet it draws fewer visitors. Early October is the sweet spot, before rain builds in November.

When is Nyepi in 2027, and is the airport closed?

Nyepi falls on Monday 8 March 2027. Ngurah Rai airport normally closes for 24 hours from 6 am that day. It sits inside a ten-day Indonesian holiday from 6 to 15 March.

Does it rain every day in Bali’s wet season?

No. January averages about 18 wet days, and rain usually falls in short, heavy bursts. Many wet-season days still have sunny mornings.

Do I need to pay a tourist tax to visit Bali?

Yes. Foreign visitors pay a one-time levy of Rp 150,000 per person, per entry. Pay it on the official Love Bali website before you fly.